Estimating the Impacts of Climate Change and Potential Adaptation Strategies on Cereal Grains in the United States

Climate change induced alterations from historical patterns of precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric gases as well as increases in the frequency of extreme events is leading to alterations in global cereal production and its spatial distribution. Using a US agricultural sector model, we examine effects and acreage adaptation with an emphasis on wheat and the Pacific Northwest region. Use of a national sector model allows for analysis at the national as well as regional level. Generally, under climate change we find that the incidence of wheat production shifts northward in the Southern Great Plains, westward in Northern Great Plains and eastward in Oregon and Washington, all of which are moves to cooler conditions. Total wheat acreage in the Pacific Northwest is expected to decline from 6 million acres under no climate change to 5.4–5.7 million acres over the study period. Additionally, we consider impacts on price, production, and consumer, producer, and foreign welfare finding losses to consumer welfare and gains to producer welfare with overall losses in surplus. Recommendations are made for future research and alternative ways that adaptation strategies can be integrated into models to predict long-term impacts.